Classical probability theory assumes an equal likelihood for all outcomes. For example, if you were to flip a coin, there's an equal change of it landing on "heads" or "tails." Microsoft Excel offers ...

The lure of blogging is strong. Having guest-posted about problems with eternal inflation, Tom Banks couldn’t resist coming back for more punishment. Here he tackles a venerable problem: the ...

The conjunction and disjunction fallacies are famous for revealing the limits of human reasoning about probability. This can be measured by telling people a short story about a character and then ...