Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

Chris Wiggins, an associate professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University, offers this explanation. A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent ...

Observing, gathering knowledge and making predictions are the foundations of the scientific process. The accuracy of our predictions depends on the quality of our present knowledge and accuracy of our ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

Mike Lee receives relevant research funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australia-Pacific Science Foundation, and Flinders University. Benedict King receives funding from the Australian ...

Investopedia contributors come from a range of backgrounds, and over 25 years there have been thousands of expert writers and editors who have contributed. Thomas J Catalano is a CFP and Registered ...