Are 90% probability strategies a Holy Grail? High Probability or High Risk/Reward? A 90% winning ratio can still lose money. A lot of options traders consider a 90% probability strategy a Holy Grail ...

Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.